Postings on industry analysis

Strategy students: This positing contains a summary of my earlier postings on industry structure.

Postings on generic strategies

Strategy students: This positing contains a summary of my earlier postings on generic strategies.

Share price for strategy analysis

It is often be useful to study the historical share price of a company. The historical development can tell us what strategic actions and initiative that are liked and disliked by the investors. We should not assume the investors are always right, in fact they are often wrong, but it is nevertheless important to understand the investor perspective. We can also learn about the mindset of the key executives by looking whether their experience is one of growth or decline. 

For an analysis to be meaningful, the share price cannot be analysed directly. In particular it is important to remove the effect of the general stock market. In finance, the resulting time series is called the company's abnormal return. This post will outline how to describe a company's abnormal returns and what kind of question you can ask yourself when analysing the abnormal returns.

Western companies failing in China

Companies entering foreign markets can make large mistakes by not adjusting sufficiently to the local environment. This is especially the case with Western companies entering China, because the cultural gap is large. This note will focus on failures relating to strategy.

Is the growth-share matrix (aka BCG matrix) useful?

The growth-share matrix was created by BCG, the consultancy, in the late 1960s based on work with a paper mill. Paper manufacturing is dependent on economies of scale and economies of learning, so market share went on the x-axis. Companies want to grow, so growth went on the y-axis. This model turned out to be immensely successful for BCG and it was implemented by many companies in the 1970s. 

Setting the stage for disappointment in online advertising

This note is about the difficulties of forecasting. The investment analysts are generally very optimistic about the future. When coupled with a focus on individual companies, they can end up forecasting that all companies will increase their market share. I will illustrate with the online advertising industry. The chart below highlights nine important companies in the industry. Google is the leader with more than 50% of the market. Facebook, Baidu and Twitter are the promising up-and-coming companies. Microsoft, AOL, and Yahoo are yesterday's companies.

Synergies

Synergy is a catch-all term used to describe the financial consequences of two business-units belonging to the same corporate parent as opposed to being two independent companies.

Business unit 1  +  Business unit 2  +  Synergy   =  Combined value

What can the resource-based view of the firm teach managers?

A lot of academic writing in management has dealt with the resource-based view of the firm and dynamic capabilities. This short note argues that these two ideas are not very useful to understand strategic management. Instead I argue that the value chain and core competencies are much more useful ideas for managers.

Disruptive basics

This note will summarise the idea of disruptive technology.

Economics of learning

This note is primarily directed to students. It is the fourth and final in a series on strategic cost analysis. This note will focus on the experience curve (also called the learning curve).

Food retailing in Singapore revisited

This is the fifth posting in a series on business-unit strategy.

The objective of this posting is to show how the strategy possibility frontier can be applied to the Singapore food retailing industry. I am not an expert on the industry so this is work in progress. The posting is mostly relevant to students of strategy that would like to perform similar analyses for other product categories. I have previously written about the model (start reading here) and the industry (here). It is helpful to revisit those postings before continuing.

Niche strategy

This is the fourth posting in a series on business-unit strategy.

We have so far assumed that the the competition occurs on a fairly broad level of the market. In addition to the previous two strategies, a third strategy focuses on one particular market niche. This strategy has some interesting implications illustrated in the figure 1.

Uniqueness strategy

This is the third posting in a series on business-unit strategy.

Uniqueness competition. The area labelled [b] is the realm of uniqueness competition (or differentiation). In contrast to the low-cost competition, there is generally more than one way to be unique. Companies 5, 6, 7 and 8 all have unique positions as indicated by them all being on the strategy possibility frontier. Think about companies with different advertising image, product development focus and/or customer service. (The diagram should ideally be represented in (n+1) dimensions. There are n dimensions of uniqueness and one dimension of low cost.)

Figure 1.

Low-cost strategy

This is the second posting in a series on business-unit strategy.

Low-cost competition. The area labelled [a] is the realm of price-oriented competition. Since the companies do not offer much uniqueness the only remaining way to compete is to offer the buyers lower prices. Company 1 has been the most successful in achieving a low-cost position. Company 2 and 3 both have a higher cost position (and slightly lower in terms of uniqueness). A higher cost position is often the result of lower economies of scale, but can also be due to other factors (e.g. capacity utilisation, economies of learning, location, better designed value chain).

Figure 1.

The strategy possibility frontier

This is the first posting in a series on business-unit strategy.

Product-category. A good level to understand a company's strategy is to consider the product-category level. A product category includes the individual products that fulfil a similar need for the buyers. The definition of a product category is often straightforward, but not always. Here are a few examples of product categories:

• Carbonated sweet softdrinks. In the US market this is a distinct product category, even though the definition has become somewhat blurred due to the popularity of non-carbonated softdrinks as well as bottled water. In the Asian context the definition also needs to deal with tea-based drinks.
• Packaging containers for beverages. This would include aluminium, glass, plastic and waxed paper. However, it could be argued that each raw-material should be a separate product-category. 
• Commuter transportation. This would include metropolitan rail as well as bus services in large cities. 
• Smartphones. Since a smartphone is able to function like a computer it should be seen as a different product category compared to the traditional mobile phone.

When in doubt regarding the exact definition of a product category it is necessary to explore the different options available. The considerations are similar to the ones made when analysing substitutes for an industry analysis.

The product category often corresponds to a business-unit inside a company. However, there is no guarantee that there will be a direct correspondence. If a company has more than one business-unit for a particular product-category we should consider the different business-units separately. And if a business-unit includes several product-categories we should consider the different product-categories separately.

Economies of scale and capacity utilisation (economies of capacity)

This note is primarily directed to students. It is the second in a series on strategic cost analysis. Economies of scale is defined as a company's cost per unit being lower when the it produces at a larger volume. This note explains the difference between economies of scale and a related concept called capacity utilisation. Capacity utilisation refers to how much of the existing capacity is used for production.

Economies of scale

This note is primarily directed to students. It is the first in a series on strategic cost analysis. One of the most important cost drivers is economies of scale . A key point to note is that diseconomies of scale, which textbook authors like to describe, hardly exist in the real world.

What is an entry barrier?

New entry into an industry will increase the number of competitors, which in turn will increase rivalry in subsequent time periods. It is possible to estimate the likelihood that new entry will happen by assessing the size of the barriers to entry.

This is post nine in a series on industry analysis.

JC Penney share price back on 1986 levels

JC Penney just fired Ron Johnson, its less than competent CEO (good article here). His tenure is a classic example of how to destroy a company by bad strategy and bad management. None of this analysis is based on hindsight, but on a student report from March 2012. Since the student report, the company has underperformed index with 74%.

Bargaining power of suppliers

Each supplying industry has to be evaluated separately. The first focus should be on supplying industries that represent a large portion of total cost for the focal industry. This posting will highlight the main drivers of supplier power.

This is post eight in a series on industry analysis.