Saturday 13 April 2013

Will Facebook Home increase Facebook's revenue?

Facebook has just introduced the Facebook Home application for a selected set of Android smartphones from Samsung and HTC. Is this a good idea?


The application takes over the phone, by replacing the start screen with an application from Facebook. You can check one of Facebook's many promotion videos (here).

I am sure the application will have some neat features. A strong trend in social networking is photo-sharing and this application is a response to that trend. I am also sure many people will enjoy the application after some predictable glitches are fixed. The predictable glitches are probably mostly related to the application interfering with other applications and generally making it hard to access the other applications. However, this should be easily fixed. I am also convinced that a fair number of people who like Facebook (on PC or standard smartphone application), will strongly dislike the new applications, but there is no need to download the application. However, my gut feel is that this product will flop, because it is too intrusive. I might be out of touch and will willingly concede that I could be wrong on this account. Another problem is facebook fatigue. [If you know a good source for such stats, leave a comment.]

UPDATE: Apparently the app has no direct link to camera, no direct link to phone, hardly any settings - and we know how power hungry data communication is. These things will be fixed, but first impressions count. END UPDATE

I do feel more certain about the following:
  • The reason for the Home application must be to sell advertising. Once Facebook starts putting banner ads on the home screen, I think people are going to get very annoyed. They will stop using the application en masse. 
  • If I am so out of touch that people actually will use Home with ads, Google will not be happy since they make money selling ads. Since they control Android they will find a "nice" way to restrict Facebook (i.e. an Android code-of-conduct barring advertising on the home screen or more drastically no distribution through Google Play, only through OEM). I don't think Samsung will come to Facebook's defence and HTC has no power.
I have not done an in-depth look at Facebook - the company. The share price is certainly not only driven by Facebook Home, but the share price is driven by mobile ads. Facebook is now priced at $27.50. I am very sceptical. Playing around with the numbers on Trefis if you are interested.

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